California migration: the data

What this page covers

Migration claims online tend to float free of a source: "a million people left," "California is gaining population again." This page sticks to three official data families and reports what they say, with the source for each number. It does not predict anything, and it does not explain motives; for that, see the economics of leaving California.

• California Department of Finance (DOF), the state's official demographic unit, whose E-1 and E-2 reports are the state's benchmark estimates.
• U.S. Census Bureau, with the Vintage population estimates (components of change, including domestic migration) and American Community Survey (ACS) state-to-state migration flows.
• IRS Statistics of Income (SOI), which tabulates address changes on individual income tax returns.

Where a figure could not be confirmed in a primary source, it is left out rather than estimated.

California's total population

DOF's E-1 report estimates population as of January 1 each year. Its May 2026 release revised January 1, 2025 to 39,646,907 and provisionally estimated January 1, 2026 at 39,592,978, a decline of about 0.14%.

The Census Bureau publishes a parallel series, as of July 1, built on a different method. In the Vintage 2024 estimates, California's population was 39,521,958 in 2020, fell through 2021 and 2022, and rose in 2023 and 2024.

Note the gap: Census shows 39,431,263 for July 1, 2024, while DOF's revised series is higher for the start of 2025. The two agencies use different methods and, as the next section describes, were produced at different times.

Net domestic migration

Net domestic migration is the number of people who moved to a state from elsewhere in the U.S. minus the number who moved out. It excludes immigration from abroad. For California, the Census Vintage 2024 series shows a net domestic loss every year from 2020 to 2024, peaking in the year to July 2021. The chart shows the size of the loss (the value is the number of people lost on net).

DOF describes a similar pattern with different numbers. Its December 2025 release says net domestic loss was about 140,000 in 2023-24 (down from nearly 250,000 in 2022-23) and rose to 216,000 in 2024-25, "consistent with levels in 2018 and 2019." DOF adds that California has had negative net domestic migration for over 20 years.

The same DOF release says net international migration was 126,000 in 2024-25 (about half the previous year's level) and natural increase was about 108,300, and that population grew by roughly 19,200 (0.05%) in the year ending July 1, 2025. In other words, domestic out-migration is real and persistent, but it is only one of three components.

Why population can hold steady while people leave

Population change equals natural increase plus net international migration plus net domestic migration (plus a small residual). The Census Vintage 2024 figures for California illustrate how the pieces interact:

Source: Census state components CSV.. These components exclude the statistical residual, so they need not sum exactly to the reported population change.

The point is structural, not numerical: in recent years a steady domestic loss has been partly or fully offset by immigration from abroad, and that offset has itself varied. DOF notes that international migration fell sharply in 2024-25 as humanitarian programs ended.

Where California movers go

The ACS asks respondents where they lived one year earlier. The Census Bureau tabulates the answers into state-to-state flows. For 2024, these are the estimated number of people who lived in California a year earlier and lived in each destination state at the time of the survey.

These are gross outflows to a destination, not net flows. Many people also move to California from those same states. The ACS counts people living in households and group quarters who moved within the survey year, and it does not capture people who moved and then moved again before being surveyed.

If one of these states is on your list, our state guides cover the practicalities: Texas, Arizona and Nevada.

IRS migration data

IRS Statistics of Income builds migration data from year-to-year address changes on individual income tax returns. It reports the number of returns (roughly households), personal exemptions claimed (roughly people), and adjusted gross income, and it provides state-level flows by income and age of the primary taxpayer starting in 2011. The IRS page lists data for filing years 1991 through 2023 and notes that SOI enhanced its return-matching process beginning with the 2022-2023 data.

Because it is tied to tax filing, the IRS series covers filers and their dependents rather than everyone, and it lags the other sources. Its unique strength is income: it is the main public source for the question of how much income moves with migrants. Because the methodology changed in the 2022-2023 data, treat comparisons across that line cautiously. This page does not chart IRS figures because year-to-year comparisons need the specific vintage and series, and the user guide recommends reading the strengths and limitations document first.

Last updated: vintages and why sources differ

Statistical agencies revise their numbers. When a new vintage appears, the Census Bureau revises earlier years in the same series, which is why a figure quoted from last year's release may not match today's. DOF's May 2025 press release, for example, revised California's 2023 growth rate upward from 0.2% to 0.49%. Many third-party sites republish older vintages, which can explain mismatches you see elsewhere.

The sources also measure different things:

Interpretation caveats

• Net is not gross. A net loss of 239,575 does not mean 239,575 people left. The Census flows show far more people moving in each direction.
• Time windows matter. The pandemic years (2020-2022) were unusual. Picking a single year as "the trend" can mislead in either direction.
• Survey estimates have margins of error. ACS figures are estimates. Rankings between close states can flip.
• Size effects. California is the most populous state, so its absolute numbers are large even where per-capita rates are modest. This page does not compute rates.
• Counts say nothing about why. The data records moves, not motives. See the economics of leaving California for reasons that surveys and research have identified.
• Your situation is not the average. Aggregate flows are poor guides to whether a move makes sense for a particular household. Compare actual costs with the cost of living guide.

How to use this data in your own planning

Use the data for context, not for decisions. If you are weighing destinations, the flows tell you which states receive many Californians, but do not establish how those moves affect local housing demand or services. The decision itself rests on your own work, family, budget, and tax situation. See best states to move to from California for a comparison framework.

When you see a statistic quoted elsewhere, ask four questions: who produced it, which period it covers, whether it is net or gross, and which vintage it comes from. If a number cannot be traced to a table, treat it with caution.